How to win a runoff election: turnout, timelines and messaging
A runoff is a new, smaller election on a short clock. Here is how campaigns rebuild the math, the message and the field plan in the days after the first round.
You win a runoff election by winning a much smaller electorate in a very short window. In the 2024 federal primary runoffs, turnout fell by a median of 63% from the first round, and since 1994 it has dropped in 97% of those contests, according to FairVote. The campaign that wins is usually the one that re-contacts its own first-round voters fastest, picks up the voters of eliminated candidates and banks votes during early voting. Second place is very winnable: in a USLege analysis of open-seat primary runoffs since 2002, the first-place finisher won only 60% of the time (USLege).
Treat the runoff as a new election. Campaigns that keep running their first-round plan lose to campaigns that rebuild.
What is a runoff election, and which states have them?
A runoff is a second election between the top two finishers when no candidate reaches the threshold needed to win outright. Almost everywhere that threshold is 50% plus one vote. There are two notable exceptions. In North Carolina a primary candidate needs only 30%, and a runoff (called a second primary) happens only if the runner-up requests it in writing by noon on the ninth day after the primary (Ballotpedia). South Dakota uses runoffs only for U.S. Senate, U.S. House and governor primaries with three or more candidates, triggered when no one reaches 35% (NCSL).
Ballotpedia lists ten states that use primary runoffs: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota and Texas. Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi also require runoffs in general elections, per the same Ballotpedia page. Many cities and counties require majorities in nonpartisan local races too. In Nashville's 2023 Metro election, four of the five at-large council seats were settled in the September 14 runoff (WPLN).
The gap between rounds shapes everything. Here is the 2026 statewide calendar.
| State | 2026 first round | 2026 runoff | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | March 3 primary | March 31 (Ballotpedia) | 4 weeks |
| Texas | March 3 primary | May 26 (Texas SOS) | 12 weeks |
| Mississippi | March 10 primary | April 7 (Ballotpedia) | 4 weeks |
| Louisiana | May 16 closed party primary | June 27 (Ballotpedia) | 6 weeks |
| Alabama | May 19 primary | June 16 (Alabama SOS) | 4 weeks |
| Georgia | May 19 primary | June 16 (Ballotpedia) | 4 weeks |
| South Dakota | June 2 primary | July 28 (Ballotpedia News) | 8 weeks |
| South Carolina | June 9 primary | June 23 (Ballotpedia) | 2 weeks |
| Oklahoma | June 16 primary | August 25 (Ballotpedia) | 10 weeks |
| Georgia and Mississippi | November 3 general | December 1 (Georgia.gov, Ballotpedia) | 4 weeks |
Georgia's four-week window is a product of its 2021 election law, SB 202, which cut runoffs from nine weeks to four (NPR). If you are in one of the December 1, 2026 general runoffs right now, you have less than three weeks left.
Why runoff turnout collapses, and what that does to your math
FairVote's 2024 runoff report found the largest drop-off since it began tracking in 1994. Every single 2024 federal primary runoff had lower turnout than the first round. The median decline over 30 years was 41%. In 2024 it was 63%. Turnout among voters of color fell by a median of 70%, compared with 64% for White voters. General election runoffs can be worse: Georgia's December 2024 local runoffs saw turnout fall 92% from November (FairVote).
Two more findings from that report should shape your whole plan. In 81% of 2024 runoffs the winner received fewer votes than in the first round (FairVote). And every 2024 primary runoff was decided by a margin smaller than the number of first-round voters who stayed home. In other words, the race is decided by who comes back.
Do the arithmetic on day one. Say 40,000 people voted in your first round. Apply the 41% long-run median decline and roughly 23,600 come back, so the winning number is about 11,800. Apply 2024's 63% decline and only about 14,800 vote, so you need roughly 7,400. If you got 9,000 votes in round one, you may already have enough supporters to win. The job is getting them back to the polls.
How do you win a runoff election? The first 72 hours
Runoffs are often decided before the first new mail piece lands. Do not lose the first three days to celebrating or recovering.
- Call every eliminated candidate on election night or the next morning. Ask for an endorsement, but also ask for their volunteer list, their best precinct captains and a joint appearance.
- Reset fundraising with a hard runoff deadline. Donors understand a two-candidate race and a short clock.
- Pull precinct-level results and build the target map (see the next section).
- Lock vendors. Printers, mail houses, texting platforms and canvass staffing all get crowded in runoff states. Reserve capacity before your opponent does.
- Brief your field team on the new universe and the early voting dates. Doors should be knocked within the first week.
- Publish the runoff date and early voting schedule everywhere. Plenty of your own voters do not know there is a second election.
Building the runoff voter universe
The first-round voter universe and the runoff voter universe overlap, but they are not the same list. Build it in tiers.
- Tier 1: your own first-round supporters. Use your voter IDs from canvassing and phone banks, plus precincts where you ran strongest. These people already chose you. They need a reason and a date, not persuasion.
- Tier 2: voters for eliminated candidates. Compare precinct results to find where the third- and fourth-place candidates ran well. These voters already proved they show up, and they are open.
- Tier 3: first-round voters who split between you and your opponent's coalition. Persuasion lives here, and your contrast message matters most.
- Tier 4: eligible voters who skipped round one. Worth targeting only where you have money left after tiers one through three, and only where the law lets them vote.
That last point varies by state, and it matters. In Texas, a voter who cast a ballot in one party's March primary can only vote in that party's runoff, while voters who skipped the primary can choose either party's runoff (Texas Tribune). South Carolina works the same way: Democratic primary voters could not vote in the June 23, 2026 Republican runoff, but people who skipped the primary could (Fox Carolina). In Georgia, voters who register after the first election cannot vote in the runoff (Democracy Docket), so a post-election registration drive does nothing for a Georgia runoff.
Until round-one vote history posts to the voter file, work from precinct returns, early vote rosters and your own contact data.
Runoff messaging: consolidating the field without losing your base
The first round rewarded candidates who stood out in a crowd. The runoff is a head-to-head choice, and your message has to change accordingly.
Your base message is about the date. Tell supporters plainly that the race is not over, when the runoff is, where early voting is and why their vote counts more this time because so few people come back. Repeat it until they are tired of hearing it.
Your persuasion message is a contrast. With two candidates left, you can draw clear differences on record, priorities and who each candidate answers to. Aim the contrast at your opponent and keep it away from the eliminated candidates and their voters. People who backed a third-place candidate will not vote for someone who spent the first round insulting their choice.
Chase endorsements from eliminated candidates, and chase their local validators even harder: pastors, union stewards, neighborhood leaders, precinct captains. A text from someone a voter trusts beats a press release.
If you finished second
Use the comeback story. On May 26, 2026, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton finished second in the March primary and then beat four-term Sen. John Cornyn with 63.8% in the runoff (Smart Politics). Of the 18 Texas U.S. Senate primary runoffs since 1906, the second-place finisher won 10. Down-ballot, eight Texas House Republican incumbents were forced into 2024 runoffs and six lost (Texas Tribune). A majority of first-round voters chose someone other than the leader. Your job is to show you are where they belong.
If you finished first
Your lead is real but not safe. The USLege analysis found first-place finishers with 40% or more of the primary vote won 69% of runoffs and those under 40% won 52%. Leaders who finished 10 points or more ahead won 83% of the time among Republicans and 78% among Democrats. A first-place finisher who goes quiet hands the narrative to the challenger. Spend the advantage on turnout.
Runoff timelines: a week-by-week plan
This calendar fits a four-week runoff (Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi). For South Carolina's two weeks, compress each row to a few days. For Texas or Oklahoma, with 10 to 12 weeks, add a persuasion phase in the middle.
| Window | Field | Media and digital | Money and admin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Days 1 to 3 | Re-brief canvassers, pull precinct results, recruit eliminated candidates' volunteers | Runoff date and early vote info on every channel | Runoff fundraising email and calls, lock vendors |
| Week 1 | Doors and phones to Tier 1 and Tier 2, first voter ID pass | First runoff video and digital ads live, first text wave | Finalize budget, order mail |
| Week 2 | Persuasion doors in Tier 3 precincts, endorsement events | Contrast ad and mail, validator videos | Mail ballot request push before state deadline |
| Week 3 (early voting) | Daily early vote chase against the roster, rides to the polls | Daily texts and digital reminders keyed to polling sites | Shift remaining money into turnout |
| Final 4 days | All hands on GOTV, poll greeters | Final reminder text, Election Day ad | Poll watchers and legal on call |
Early voting windows in runoffs are short, so treat them as the main event. Texas held runoff early voting May 18 to 22, 2026, and mail ballot applications had to be received by May 15 (CBS Texas). South Carolina's June 2026 runoff had just two days of early voting (Post and Courier). Chase every one of your supporters through those windows by name. Our guide to building a get-out-the-vote plan covers the chase mechanics in detail.
Money in a runoff: fundraising and budget
Do not assume a donor who maxed out in round one is done. Federal limits are published by the FEC, and state and local limits are set by state law. Confirm how your race treats a runoff before you send the ask to your maxed-out primary donors.
Spend runoff money on contact, not introduction. Voters already know the names. Tilt the budget toward channels that reach specific people on your list (doors, texts, phones, targeted digital and mail) and hold a real reserve for the early voting chase. Our political campaign budget guide shows how to structure line items.
Field, mail, digital and TV: what to buy in a short race
Doors come first
Door knocking is the best tool for getting your people back. The problem is speed. Most campaigns start paid canvassing too late, and in a four-week runoff a team that takes ten days to stand up has lost a third of the race. If you need to scale fast, see what paid canvassing costs and produces.
Texts and phones carry the date
Peer-to-peer texting can launch the morning after the first round and carries date reminders and early vote nudges well. Our guide to political direct mail and texting covers costs and compliance.
Mail needs a calendar
Mail is strong for contrast and for habitual voters, but it needs design, print and postal time. If a runoff looks likely, have templates ready before the first round ends.
Video and TV
Cut a runoff ad from existing footage within days: the candidate's direct ask, the date and the early voting window. Then add validator videos from endorsers. Broadcast TV fits large statewide runoffs. For district races, connected TV and targeted digital usually reach the runoff universe more efficiently. See political TV ad costs and political digital advertising.
Frequently asked questions
How do you win a runoff election?
You win by turning out more of your supporters than your opponent does in an electorate often half the size of the first round or smaller. Re-contact your first-round voters immediately, win over eliminated candidates' voters and bank votes during early voting.
What happens in a runoff election?
The top two finishers face each other in a new election, two to twelve weeks later depending on the state. With two candidates, the one with more votes wins a majority. Early and mail voting normally apply, often with shorter windows.
Who can vote in a runoff election?
It depends on the state. In Texas and South Carolina, a voter who cast a ballot in one party's primary can vote only in that party's runoff, while voters who skipped the primary can vote in either. In Georgia, voters who registered after the first election cannot vote in the runoff. Check your state election office before you target anyone outside the first-round electorate.
Does the first-place finisher usually win the runoff?
The leader wins about three times in five. USLege's analysis of open-seat primary runoffs since 2002 found the first-place finisher won 60% of the time, and 78% to 83% of the time when they led by 10 points or more. Second-place finishers with momentum win often, as Ken Paxton showed in Texas in 2026.
Why is turnout so low in runoff elections?
Many voters do not know a second election is happening, and short windows leave little time to tell them. FairVote found a median 63% turnout drop in 2024 federal primary runoffs, the largest since it began tracking in 1994.
Which states have runoff elections?
Ten states use primary runoffs: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota and Texas. Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi also hold general election runoffs, and many cities use them in local races.
Can donors give again for a runoff?
Check before you ask. Federal limits are published by the FEC, and state and local limits come from state law, so confirm how your race treats a runoff with the FEC or your state ethics or campaign finance office.
Should I get endorsements from the candidates who lost?
Yes, and move fast, because your opponent is making the same calls. Ask for more than a statement: a volunteer list, introductions to their precinct leaders and a joint appearance. Those relationships move more of their voters than the announcement does.
How Leo Operations approaches this
Leo Operations is a national field, media and creative firm founded in 2019 by Rodriquez Wright II and headquartered in Nashville, with political campaign work going back to 2012. Our field programs have knocked more than 650,000 doors, and we have run campaign, ballot and organizing work in 25 states, including runoff states Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina and North Carolina. We served as digital consultant for Metro Nashville's at-large council races in 2019 and 2023, and in 2023 all five at-large seats were won by women, four of them in the September runoff.
In a runoff we build one plan across field and media from the first morning: precinct targeting, a paid canvass, early vote chase lists, texting and a runoff ad. The same team handles doors, video and digital, so the message voters hear at the door matches what they see on their phones.
If you are headed to a runoff, email us your race, your runoff date and your first-round numbers, and we will tell you what it takes.